Capital Flows & Market Leverage

Decision-support dashboard that separates official delayed positioning from derived market-flow proxies. No values are presented as real-time transactions.

Last updated
7/19/2026, 8:21:32 PM

Capital Rotation

proxy

Risk-on

Fallback proxy snapshot shows growth sectors leading while defensive proxies lag.

Source: Offline fallback ETF price-volume proxy · Observation: 2026-07-17 · Frequency: daily

Institutional Positioning

reported

Neutral

13F is delayed; latest configured managers show mixed sector changes.

Source: SEC Form 13F Data Sets / EDGAR (offline fallback snapshot) · Observation: 2026-03-31 · Frequency: quarterly

Retail Leverage

reported

Elevated

69/100 from FINRA debit/free-credit aggregates.

Source: FINRA Margin Statistics (offline fallback snapshot) · Observation: 2026-06-30 · Frequency: monthly

Hedge-Fund Leverage

reported

Elevated

65/100 from quarterly prime-broker borrowing.

Source: Federal Reserve / FRED BOGZ1FL624123035Q (offline fallback snapshot) · Observation: 2026-03-31 · Frequency: quarterly

Options Speculation

proxy

Balanced

No reliable free options aggregate is wired; shown as neutral unavailable/proxy state.

Source: Offline fallback ETF price-volume proxy · Observation: 2026-07-17 · Frequency: daily

Data Freshness

reported

Delayed

Oldest important observation: 2026-03-31. Frequencies are preserved.

Source: Federal Reserve / FRED BOGZ1FL624123035Q (offline fallback snapshot) · Observation: 2026-03-31 · Frequency: quarterly

Sector capital-flow leaderboard

Signed score is a transparent proxy; it is not claimed ETF dollar flow.

Ticker / Sector	Flow score	1W	1M	3M	Signal basis / components	Freshness	Confidence
TECHNOLOGY Technology	+54	Strong inflow	Strong inflow	Strong inflow	ETF proxy + relative strength + volume Flow proxy · abnormal volume 45% · 24% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
COMMUNICATION Communication Services	+32	Strong inflow	Inflow	Inflow	ETF proxy + relative strength Flow proxy · abnormal volume 27% · 8% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
FINANCIALS Financials	+16	Inflow	Inflow	Inflow	ETF proxy + volume Flow proxy · abnormal volume 14% · 14% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
INDUSTRIALS Industrials	+8	Inflow	Neutral	Inflow	ETF proxy Flow proxy · abnormal volume 4% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
UTILITIES Utilities	+4	Inflow	Neutral	Neutral	ETF proxy Flow proxy · abnormal volume -2% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
HEALTH-CARE Health Care	-6	Neutral	Neutral	Outflow	ETF proxy Flow proxy · abnormal volume -4% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
CONSUMER-STAPLES Consumer Staples	-8	Outflow	Outflow	Neutral	ETF proxy Flow proxy · abnormal volume -9% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
REAL-ESTATE Real Estate	-16	Outflow	Outflow	Outflow	ETF proxy Flow proxy · abnormal volume -14% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
MATERIALS Materials	-18	Outflow	Outflow	Outflow	ETF proxy Flow proxy · abnormal volume -13% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
ENERGY Energy	-18	Outflow	Neutral	Outflow	ETF proxy + commodity sensitivity Flow proxy · abnormal volume -7% · -4% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
CONSUMER-DISCRETIONARY Consumer Discretionary	-30	Strong outflow	Outflow	Outflow	ETF proxy + volume Flow proxy · abnormal volume -25% · -6% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High

ETF / fund flow proxy watchlist

Watchlist is configured in one shared data module and labeled as proxy where actual creations/redemptions are unavailable.

Ticker / Sector	Category	Flow score	1W	1M	3M	Signal basis / components	Freshness	Confidence
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF	Broad market	+48	Strong inflow	Strong inflow	Strong inflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 36% · 16% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust	Growth / Nasdaq	+44	Strong inflow	Inflow	Strong inflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 31% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF	Small cap	+44	Strong inflow	Inflow	Inflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 25% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR	Sector	+28	Strong inflow	Inflow	Inflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 14% · 16% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight	Broad market	+26	Strong inflow	Inflow	Inflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 20% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR	Sector	+26	Strong inflow	Inflow	Inflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 9% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR	Sector	+8	Inflow	Neutral	Neutral	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume 4% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF	Thematic	+8	Inflow	Neutral	Outflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -7% · 16% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR	Sector	+6	Inflow	Neutral	Neutral	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -2% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
ARKK ARK Innovation ETF	Thematic	-12	Neutral	Outflow	Outflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -13% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	Bond	-12	Neutral	Outflow	Outflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -18% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
HYG iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	Credit	-12	Neutral	Outflow	Outflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -23% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium
GLD SPDR Gold Shares	Commodity	-28	Outflow	Outflow	Strong outflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -29% · 16% proxy/available change	daily · 2026-07-17	High
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust	Crypto-related	-30	Outflow	Outflow	Strong outflow	Flow proxy: relative return + abnormal volume + price-volume trend Flow proxy · abnormal volume -34% · shares/AUM unavailable	daily · 2026-07-17	Medium

Institutional 13F positioning

13F data is delayed, generally long-only, and does not reveal complete hedges, shorts, derivatives or trades after quarter-end.

Berkshire Hathaway · CIK 0001067983

reported

Filing period: 2026-03-31

Filing lag: 45 days

Portfolio value: $0M

New / exited: /

Largest increases:

Largest decreases:

Sector changes:

Source: SEC submissions API / Form 13F-HR metadata · Observation: 2026-03-31 · Frequency: quarterly

Bridgewater Associates · CIK 0001350694

reported

Filing period: 2026-03-31

Filing lag: 45 days

Portfolio value: $0M

New / exited: /

Largest increases:

Largest decreases:

Sector changes:

Source: SEC submissions API / Form 13F-HR metadata · Observation: 2026-03-31 · Frequency: quarterly

Appaloosa Management · CIK 0001166559

reported

Filing period: 2026-03-31

Filing lag: 45 days

Portfolio value: $0M

New / exited: /

Largest increases:

Largest decreases:

Sector changes:

Source: SEC submissions API / Form 13F-HR metadata · Observation: 2026-03-31 · Frequency: quarterly

CFTC futures positioning

S&P 500

reported

Category: Leveraged Funds

Interpretation: Neutral

Net position: 500

Weekly change: 0

Historical percentile: 50/100

CFTC categories are not named investors; current text parsing provides live category-labeled rows with limited history until backfill is added.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders current financial futures report · Observation: 2026-07-19 · Frequency: weekly

Nasdaq

reported

Category: Leveraged Funds

Interpretation: Neutral

Net position: -100

Weekly change: 0

Historical percentile: 50/100

CFTC categories are not named investors; current text parsing provides live category-labeled rows with limited history until backfill is added.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders current financial futures report · Observation: 2026-07-19 · Frequency: weekly

Retail Leverage Score

reported

69/100

Elevated

918.4 $B customer margin debit balances

MoM: 1.8% · YoY: 9.7%

Percentile: 72/100

FINRA debit-balance percentile 72 · 3-month debit-balance growth 67 · 12-month debit-balance growth 64 · Debit balances vs free credits 70

Offline fallback based on the FINRA metric definition; aggregate customer margin accounts are not pure retail-only identity or individual brokerage portfolios.

Source: FINRA Margin Statistics (offline fallback snapshot) · Observation: 2026-06-30 · Frequency: monthly

Hedge-Fund Leverage Score

reported

100/100

Extreme

774,026 $B secured borrowing via prime brokerages

QoQ: 4.48% · YoY: 44.28%

Percentile: 100/100

Prime-broker borrowing percentile 100 · Quarterly growth 72 · Annual growth 100

Quarterly aggregate secured borrowing is an imperfect leverage measure and can rise with hedge-fund assets.

Source: Federal Reserve / FRED BOGZ1FL624123035Q · Observation: 2025-10-01 · Frequency: quarterly

Historical source-frequency snapshots

Monthly and quarterly data are displayed as discrete observations; no fake daily interpolation is shown.

Technology sector flow proxy

daily

06-17

07-01

07-17

Source: Offline fallback ETF price-volume proxy

FINRA margin debit balance

monthly

04-30

05-31

06-30

Source: FINRA Margin Statistics (offline fallback snapshot)

Hedge-fund prime-broker borrowing

quarterly

09-30

12-31

03-31

Source: Federal Reserve / FRED BOGZ1FL624123035Q (offline fallback snapshot)

Gold COT asset-manager percentile

weekly

06-30

07-07

07-14

Source: CFTC COT